Who needs the BCS when you have the NCAA Super Rankings
Posted on December 5, 2010 | By brianmmorgan | Leave a response
For years I had wanted to create my own NCAA football poll, and in 2006, I finally did so, naming the site the NCAA Super Rankings. I love numbers and have always tinkered with formulas, rankings, etc. In 2006 I set out to create a poll that is based on a mathematical formula that would ultimately prove who should play for a national championship in major college football, since a playoff system does not exist (that’s an entirely different topic).
After yesterday’s action, I can say that each of the five years that I have kept my poll, it has successfully predicted who will play in the national championship. This year was a bit iffy, but it’s unreal how the math works itself out. In my poll, you really cannot determine true rankings until after 5-6 weeks of action because of all of the secondary calculations that have to be done based on what teams you have beat, how well they do the rest of the season, etc. However, Auburn has been on top of my poll since week 1 (never had that happened before). What else was ironic is TCU held the number 2 spot in my poll most of the year, even after Oregon’s win yesterday, but once the late games were factored in showing how the rest of Oregon’s opponents did last night, the Ducks rose to number 2, setting up an Oregon/Auburn national championship, just like what is to take place.
I have had several people ask about my formula and unfortunately, I won’t divulge it, other than to say it is based on 3 levels of points… wins/losses, opponents’ wins/losses, and margin of victory. It does not take in to account home field advantage, rain, snow, etc. I have tweaked the formula ever so slightly in the last five years, but even so, I don’t touch it during the season.
I have also added several features to my site over the last five years including team schedules, stats on the college football season, bowl eligible team indications, how well a team fared against other top 10, top 25, and top 50 teams as well as the record of teams they beat and teams they lost to, past rankings by year, and even an overall ranking using my formula since I started the system. I have had a lot of fun working on the site and plan to work in the off-season to promote it as a viable computer option to the system that we are currently stuck with, aka, BCS.
Now true, you may not be happy with ALL of the rankings as the #5 Buckeyes’ fans may be upset that Boise is ahead of them at #4, but the math does not lie. The one constant across rankings systems should not be one’s personal bias as to liking one team over another, etc. but it should be the math and that’s exactly what my poll brings to the table.
For anyone interested in viewing the site, it is found at http://www.brianmmorgan.com/
If anyone has any questions or would like to make comments on the system